Matt Meshulam's Brain Dump

I must confess, I am starting to write this entry Monday night with the assumption that Barack Obama will win the election. If he doesn’t, or if it is a drawn-out ordeal like in 2000, well, then this will just be my “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment.

I try not to get caught up in personality politics, and that’s probably why it was so long before I was enthusiastic about Obama. Before I knew about the man and his views, his way of thinking, I knew the hype that constantly surrounded him. Being a hipster deep down inside, I have an instinctive aversion to popular things. I call it the Garden State effect.

But over the course of the primary campaign, I began to see my Senator as someone who understands that there is complexity in every issue, every decision, and every person’s views. He is a pragmatist and a realist, and that’s why I eventually came to support him so strongly. This quote from this summer really shows how thoughtful President-elect Obama can be, even on such a personal issue as religion and its role in politics:

Democracy demands that the religiously motivated translate their concerns into universal, rather than religion-specific, values. It requires that their proposals be subject to argument, and amenable to reason. I may be opposed to abortion for religious reasons, but if I seek to pass a law banning the practice, I cannot simply point to the teachings of my church or evoke God’s will. I have to explain why abortion violates some principle that is accessible to people of all faiths, including those with no faith at all . . . Politics depends on our ability to persuade each other of common aims based on a common reality. It involves the compromise, the art of what’s possible. At some fundamental level, religion does not allow for compromise. It’s the art of the impossible. If God has spoken, then followers are expected to live up to God’s edicts, regardless of the consequences. To base one’s life on such uncompromising commitments may be sublime, but to base our policy making on such commitments would be a dangerous thing.

I admit I got a little choked up when watching Obama’s acceptance speech. It turns out that anybody really can grow up to become president.

Gosh bless America.

P.S: The Onion has a slightly different perspective: Black Man Given Nation’s Worst Job.

I just was poking around CNN’s election center and I noticed that even if McCain wins all of the states they classify as “battleground states,” he’ll still lose the election. I think there are a lot more swing states than the ones they list; they are probably using some very basic criteria for their classification. But I find it interesting how the media has an interest in making it seem like the election is close, even if their analysis shows the opposite.

I’d like to keep my personal political views out of this space as much as possible and keep the focus on evenhanded analysis, but I’ll be making two exceptions: this post and probably a post on Tuesday evening. Election day is in two days. The polls have been stabilizing at somewhere around Obama +4-6. October has come and gone without any real October Surprises. I think I’m finally ready to be cautiously optimistic about Barack Obama’s chances at winning the election. I’m definitely feeling good about how things are going, but of course nothing is a certainty. Here’s why I qualify my optimism with caution:

• Election fraud: We saw in Ohio four years ago how many polling locations in black neighborhoods were horrendously understaffed and ill-equipped for the number of voters that came. Many people blamed the (Republican) Secretary of State for intentionally mismanaging the resources in an effort to reduce Democratic turnout. I don’t know enough to say if this is true, but it would be ignorant to deny that this sort of thing happens in every election. Another thing to watch out for is confusing ballot design. Florida’s butterfly ballots became infamous, and I believe that the Pennsylvania early voting ballot has a straight-party vote option, but the presidential vote still has to be entered separately. Of course, these confusing designs don’t always help a certain political party, but it’s conceivable that a bad ballot design could swing the results in a state by at least a fraction of a point. And on the topic of election fraud, don’t even get me started on electronic voting in this country.
• Young ones stay home: I’m not all that worried about this one, but it could happen. Much of Obama’s support comes from the 18-24 demographic. Historically, their turnout has been lower than the population at large, but most analysts expect their enthusiasm about this race to move more of them to vote. If too many college students get stoned and forget to vote on Tuesday, that could be significant. But since the Obama campaign has such a strong Get Out the Vote framework, I too expect the youth turnout to be above 2004 levels.
• Bradley effect: Probably the most commonly cited reason to worry about a McCain upset. The effect is named after an African-American candidate for Governor of California in the 80’s. He narrowly lost after leading in the polls, and many believe that some white voters were afraid to admit to pollsters that they weren’t voting for the black candidate, for fear of being called a racist. Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight has a great writeup on why we may not need to worry about the Bradley Effect.

I’m comforted that none of these factors are likely to significantly swing the race. The fact that there are anywhere between five and eight tipping point states (depending on who you ask) and that Obama has leads in most of them will help me sleep for the next two nights. After then, hopefully sleeping won’t be a problem.

I’ve had this hobby recently of visiting the Drudge Report and Huffington Post, just to see how the two beacons of partisan media are spinning the day’s news. Let’s observe:

The significance of Drudge’s cover story is mostly in the fact that they are reporting with a tone like this. My first thought was, “Stage 5: acceptance.” There had been suspicion during the primaries that Matt Drudge had a soft spot for Obama, but I didn’t really see that carry through to the general campaign.  Maybe those speculations had been correct, or maybe Drudge–like so many other conservative and right-wing analysts–have simply started considering an Obama presidency as a likely possibility.  Given the polls at the moment (I do love my polls) they probably should be rolling this idea around in their minds sooner rather than later. Remember the anger and bitterness after 2000? Think of that, but if the angry people have more guns. I want them to be as stable as possible before the 4th. (Also of note: the red mini-headline above my screenshot is about an AP poll where McCain and Obama are neck-and-neck nationally. So maybe there’s still a bit of cognitive dissonance going on)

As for Huffington Post, apparently they have grown tired of reporting all the good news about Barack Obama and have decided to exercise their luxury of latching onto a trivial bit of information that supposedly makes the Republicans look bad. There is a bit of a double-standard with the way men and women are expected to dress, and this just seems like that fact taken to the extreme. Besides, I don’t think the the McCain/Palin campaign managers really wanted her campaigining around in her traditional attire of moose hide coats with baby seal eye buttons.